Answer :

Let events E_{1}, E_{2} be the following:

E_{1}: event that person followed the course of yoga & meditation

E_{2}: event that the person adopted the drug prescription

Given that: meditation and yoga and drug has equal probabilities

Now, Let E be the event that ‘a person has a heart attack’.

It is given that Normal risk of heart attack is 40%

⇒ P(E) = 0.40

P(E|E_{1}) is the probability of having heart attack if he followed a course of meditation and yoga

Meditation reduce the risk by 30%, so there is a risk of 70%

i.e. 0.70

So,

P(E|E_{2}) is the probability of having heart attack if he adopted the drug prescription

The drug prescription reduce the risk by 25%, so there is a risk of 75% i.e. 0.75

So,

Now, we have to find the probability that person followed the course of meditation and yoga, if a person selected has a heart attack

We use Bayes’ theorem to find the probability of occurrence of an event A when event B has already occurred.

∴

P(E_{1}|E) is the probability that the patient suffering a heart attack followed a course of meditation and yoga

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