Q. 235.0( 3 Votes )

A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six.

Answer :

Let us consider some samples,

A: man speaks truth


B: man lies


E: six on the die


Now,


The probability of the samples are


P(A) =


P(B)=1 - P(A)


P(B)=


P(B)=


P(E|A)=


And,


P(E|B)=1 - P(E|A)


P(E|B)=


P(E|B)=


We have to Find the probability that is actually a six , if the men speaks that it is a six


So that, we have to find : P(A|E)





Hence, The required probability is 3/8.


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