For A,B and

Let us assume U1, U2, U3 and A be the events as follows:

U1 = choosing Firm A

U2 = choosing Firm B

U3 = choosing Firm C

A = A change takes place

From the problem

P(A|U1) = P(Change occurs due to firm A)

P(A|U2) = P(Change occurs due to Firm B)

P(A|U3) = P(Change occurs due to firm C)

Now we find

P(U2|A) + P(U3|A) = P(The change occurred due to appointing B or C)

Using Baye’s theorem:

The required probability is .

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