Q. 105.0( 1 Vote )

A factory h

Answer :

Given:


Factory X has produced 1000 bolts per day


Factory Y has produced 2000 bolts per day


Factory Z has produced 3000 bolts per day.


Let us assume U1, U2, U3 and A be the events as follows:


U1 = choosing factory X


U2 = choosing factory Y


U3 = choosing factory Z


A = choosing a defective bolt





From the problem:


P(A|U1) = P(Choosing defective bolt from factory X)



P(A|U2) = P(Choosing defective bolt from factory Y)



P(A|U3) = P(Choosing defective bolt from factory Z)



Now we find


P(U1|A) = P(The chosen bolt is from factory X)


Using Baye’s theorem:







The required probability is .


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