# In a bulb factory

Let

D : Bulb is defective

We want to find P(C|D), i.e. probability that the selected defective bulb is manufactured by C

Where, P(A) = probability that bulb is made by machine A

P(B) = probability that bulb is made by machine B

P(C) = probability that bulb is made by machine C

P(D|A) = probability of defective bulb from machine A

P(D|B) = probability of defective bulb from machine B

P(D|C) = probability of defective bulb from machine C

Conclusion: Therefore, the probability of selected defective bulb is from machine C is

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